Trends of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2009.

Background: The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer (PCa) were historically low in China but have increased considerably in recent years. This study aimed to describe the detailed trend of PCa incidence and mortality in Shanghai, China.

Materials and Methods: Incidence and mortality data of PCa in urban Shanghai during 1973 and 2009 were collected by the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Age standardized rates (ASR) of incidence and mortality were calculated based on the 1966 world standard population. Join point regression analysis was used to describe the trends and to identify specific time points when significant changes in incidence and mortality occurred.

Results: The PCa incidence in Shanghai increased ∼sixfold from an ASR of 2.13/100,000 in 1973 to 12.96/100,000 in 2009, and its rank ascended from the 17th to the 4th most common cancer during the period. The PCa mortality in Shanghai increased threefold from an ASR of 1.61/100,000 in 1973 to 4.97/100,000 in 2009, and its rank ascended from the 17th to the 6th most deadly cancer during this period. More specifically, the ASR of incidence increased slightly before 1991, sharply during1991-2004, and slightly after 2004, with annual percent changes (APC) of 2.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.3%-4.3%), 13.2% (11.4%-15.0%), and 3.2% (-0.3%-6.8%), respectively. The mortality trend was stable before 1985 and increased slowly but steadily after 1985, with APC of -0.6% (-4.4%-3.3%) and 5.3% (4.7%-6.0%), respectively. The increasing incidence and mortality rates were primarily observed in men ≥ 70 years.

Conclusion: The incidence and mortality of PCa have increased significantly in Shanghai, China over the past four decades. 

Prostate. 2015 Jul 17. doi: 10.1002/pros.23046. [Epub ahead of print]

Qi D1,2, Wu C3, Liu F1,2,4, Gu K3, Shi Z1,2, Lin X4, Tao S5, Xu W6, Brendler CB7, Zheng Y3, Xu J1,2,4,5,7.

1State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
2Center for Genetic Epidemiology, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
3Department of Cancer Prevention and Control, Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China.
4Fudan Institute of Urology, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
5Center for Genomic Translational Medicine and Prevention, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
6Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
7Department of Surgery and Program for Personalized Cancer Care, North Shore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois.

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