Performance of a Prostate Cancer Genomic Classifier in Predicting Metastasis in Men with Prostate-specific Antigen Persistence Postprostatectomy

Prostate cancer patients who have a detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) postprostatectomy may harbor pre-existing metastatic disease. To our knowledge, none of the commercially available genomic biomarkers have been investigated in such men.


To evaluate if a 22-gene genomic classifier can independently predict development of metastasis in men with PSA persistence postoperatively.


A multi-institutional study of 477 men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) between 1990 and 2015 from three academic centers. Patients were categorized as detectable PSA (n=150) or undetectable (n=327) based on post-RP PSA nadir ≥0.1 ng/ml.


Cumulative incidence curves for metastasis were constructed using Fine-Gray competing risks analysis. Penalized Cox univariable and multivariable (MVA) proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate the association of the genomic classifier with metastasis.


The median follow-up for censored patients was 57 mo. The median time from RP to first postoperative PSA was 1.4 mo. Detectable PSA patients were more likely to have higher adverse pathologic features compared with undetectable PSA patients. On MVA, only genomic high-risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.02-19.41, p=0.001), detectable PSA (HR: 4.26, 95% CI: 1.16-21.8, p=0.03), and lymph node invasion (HR: 12.2, 95% CI: 2.46-70.7, p=0.003) remained prognostic factors for metastasis. Among detectable PSA patients, the 5-yr metastasis rate was 0.90% for genomic low/intermediate and 18% for genomic high risk (p<0.001). Genomic high risk remained independently prognostic on MVA (HR: 5.61, 95% CI: 1.48-22.7, p=0.01) among detectable PSA patients. C-index for Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical score, Gandaglia nomogram, and the genomic classifier plus either Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical score or Gandaglia were 0.69, 0.68, and 0.82 or 0.81, respectively. Sample size was a limitation.


Despite patients with a detectable PSA harboring significantly higher rates of aggressive clinicopathologic features, Decipher independently predicts for metastasis. Prospective validation of these findings is warranted and will be collected as part of the ongoing randomized trial NRG GU-002.


Decipher independently predicted metastasis for patients with detectable prostate-specific antigen after prostatectomy.

Eur Urol. 2017 Dec 9. pii: S0302-2838(17)31016-3. doi: 10.1016/j.eururo.2017.11.024. [Epub ahead of print]

Spratt DE1, Dai DLY2, Den RB3, Troncoso P4, Yousefi K2, Ross AE5, Schaeffer EM6, Haddad Z2, Davicioni E2, Mehra R7, Morgan TM8, Rayford W9, Abdollah F10, Trabulsi E11, Achim M12, Tapia ELN12, Guerrero M12, Karnes RJ13, Dicker AP3, Hurwitz MA3, Nguyen PL14, Feng FFY15, Freedland SJ16, Davis JW12

Author Information:

  1. Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. 
  2. GenomeDx Biosciences Inc, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
  3. Department of Radiation Oncology, Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  4. Department of Pathology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.
  5. Department of Urology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  6. Department of Urology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.
  7. Department of Pathology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
  8. Department of Urology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
  9. The Urology Group LLC, Memphis, TN, USA.
  10. Vattikuti Urology Institute, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, MI, USA.
  11. Department of Urology, Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  12. Department of Urology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.
  13. Department of Urology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
  14. Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Brigham and Women'sHospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
  15. Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
  16. Department of Surgery, Division of Urology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
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