To establish a prognostic model that estimates cancer-specific survival (CSS) probability for muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients undergoing partial cystectomy. Patients and Methods. 866 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2015) were enrolled in our study. These patients were randomly divided into the development cohort (n = 608) and validation cohort (n = 258) at a ratio of 7 : 3. A Cox regression was performed to select the predictors associated with CSS. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the survival outcome between different risk groups. The calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the concordance index (C-index) were utilized to evaluate the performance of the model.
The nomogram incorporated age, histology, T stage, N stage, M stage, regional nodes examined, and tumour size. The C-index of the model was 0.733 (0.696-0.77) in the development cohort, while this value was 0.707 (0.705-0.709) in the validation cohort. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.802 for 1-year, 0.769 for 3-year, and 0.799 for 5-year, respectively, in the development cohort, and was 0.731 for 1-year, 0.748 for 3-year, and 0.752 for 5-year, respectively, in the validation cohort. The calibration curves for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS showed great concordance. Significant differences were observed between high, medium, and low risk groups (P < 0.001).
We have constructed a highly discriminative and precise nomogram and a corresponding risk classification system to predict the cancer-specific survival for muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients undergoing partial cystectomy. The model can assist in the decision on choice of treatment, patient counselling, and follow-up scheduling.
Journal of oncology. 2022 Mar 01*** epublish ***
Xiangpeng Zhan, Tao Chen, Ming Jiang, Wen Deng, Xiaoqiang Liu, Luyao Chen, Bin Fu
Department of Urology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.