Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is the most common subtype of renal malignancy and remains a major cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Although advances in surgery, targeted therapy, and immunotherapy have improved outcomes for patients, reliable biomarkers for predicting prognosis remain limited. Therefore, robust gene-based prognostic models are urgently needed to improve risk stratification and guide individualized treatment strategies.
We developed a novel prognostic model integrating apoptosis and immune - related genes (AIRGs) to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with ccRCC.
Using Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) combined with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, we identified 7 key prognostic genes, namely, CCR4, TNFRSF10A, TEK, TGFA, CD14, IFITM1, and SEMA3G, that collectively demonstrated strong predictive performance in TCGA cohort with c-index = 0.711. Functional enrichment analyses revealed that apoptosis, immune regulation, and multiple oncogenic signaling pathways were significantly associated with the risk score, highlighting the critical role of the tumor microenvironment in ccRCC progression. Transcription factor binding analysis based on the JASPAR database suggested that RELA and STAT3 with scores of 0.829 and 0.951, respectively are potential upstream regulators within the prognostic network, particularly influencing TNFRSF10A expression. External validation using the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) dataset confirmed the robustness of the prognostic model with c-index = 0.612 Furthermore, in vitro experiments demonstrated that RELA and STAT3 regulate TNFRSF10A-mediated apoptotic signaling in ccRCC cells, providing mechanistic support for the bioinformatic findings.
This study establishes a biologically informed and clinically relevant prognostic framework for ccRCC. Our findings highlight the therapeutic potential of targeting the RELA/STAT3-TNFRSF10A axis and contribute to the advancement of precision medicine in ccRCC.
World journal of surgical oncology. 2026 Jun 22 [Epub ahead of print]
Yuyou Deng, Changzhen Hao, Xiaobing Yang, Chengfan Yu, Ming Xia, Tian Wang
Department of Urology, Peking University International Hospital, No.1 Shengyuan Road, Zhongguancun Life Science Park, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China., Department of Urology, Peking University International Hospital, No.1 Shengyuan Road, Zhongguancun Life Science Park, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China. .