Ethnic variation in prostate cancer detection: a feasibility study for use of the Stockholm3 test in a multiethnic U.S. cohort.

The Stockholm3 test improves Gleason Grade Group ≥2 (GG ≥ 2) prostate cancer (PC) detection, however it has not been evaluated in an American cohort where clinical practice patterns and ethnicity differ.

We aimed to identify subgroups within a Stockholm population with PC risk profiles matching American ethnicity-specific subgroups and compare the detection of PC and describe Stockholm3 performance within these subgroups.

All men age 49-70 years presenting for prostate biopsies were evaluated at UIC from 2016 to 2019, as well as men in Stockholm from 2012 to 2014 in the STHLM3 study. Propensity scores (PS) were estimated for each person using logistic regression for age, PSA, prostate volume, family history of PC, 5-alpha reductase inhibitor use, and prior biopsy. 3:1 PS matching was performed for Stockholm to Chicago ethnicity-specific cohorts and odds ratios (OR) were computed to compare detection of GG ≥ 2 PC between groups.

504 Chicago men and 6980 Stockholm men were included. In African American (AA) men, 51% had GG ≥ 2 PC detected, while in risk-matched Stockholm men, 34% had GG ≥ 2 PC detected (OR: 2.1, p < 0.001). There was no statistical difference in GG ≥ 2 PC detected when matching Stockholm men to non-Hispanic Caucasian men (31% vs. 24%, OR: 0.7, p = 0.30) or Hispanic Caucasian men (31% vs. 27%, OR: 1.2, p = 0.42). The AUC for the Stockholm3 test of the matched Stockholm cohorts for AA, non-Hispanic Caucasian, and Hispanic Caucasian men was 0.85, 0.89, and 0.90, respectively.

Using statistical techniques to simulate a multi-ethnic Chicago cohort within the STHLM3 population, we found an excess risk of GG ≥ 2 PC among AA men. Our hypothesis that the Stockholm3 may have good predictive value in a multiethnic cohort is strengthened, and that recalibration to at least AA men seems likely to be needed to obtain well-calibrated predictions.

Prostate cancer and prostatic diseases. 2020 Jul 08 [Epub ahead of print]

Hari T Vigneswaran, Andrea Discacciati, Peter H Gann, Henrik Grönberg, Martin Eklund, Michael R Abern

Department of Urology, College of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60607, USA. ., Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77, Solna, Sweden., Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60607, USA., Department of Urology, College of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60607, USA.

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