The International Bladder Cancer Group (IBCG) has proposed a prognostic model for intermediate risk (IR) non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) for clinical decision-making. We applied the IBCG IR model in a population-based Swedish setting in patients with primary IR NMIBC diagnosed 2013-2014 in BladderBaSe 2. 0. Patients were stratified into low-risk (unifocal and tumour size < 3 cm) and intermediate-risk (multiple and/or tumour size ≥ 3 cm) for estimation of 1- and 3-year recurrence-free survival (RFS). Among 710 patients with IR NMIBC, 329 (46%) and 381 (54%) were categorized as low- and intermediate-risk, respectively. Probabilities of disease recurrence or death at 1 and 3 years in low-risk patients were 19% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15-23) and 41% (95% CI: 35-46), versus 27% (95% CI: 22-31) and 45% (95% CI: 40-50) in the intermediate-risk group. In a sensitivity analysis including only patients receiving serial adjuvant instillations (n = 152) the corresponding probabilities at 1 and 3 years were 19% (95% CI: 10-28) and 33% (95% CI: 22-43) versus 15% (95% CI: 7-23) and 31% (95% CI: 20-41), respectively. Thus, no clinically meaningful difference in recurrence-free survival was observed between International Bladder Cancer Group low- and intermediate-risk groups in this population-based primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancer setting.
Scandinavian journal of urology. 2026 Apr 17*** epublish ***
Denis Mesinovic, Johannes Bobjer, Oskar Hagberg, Firas Aljabery, Truls Gårdmark, Staffan Jahnson, Tomas Jerlström, Henrik Kjölhede, Per-Uno Malmström, Viveka Ströck, Karin Söderkvist, Anders Ullén, Lars Holmberg, Christel Häggström, Fredrik Liedberg
Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Urology Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden. ., Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Urology Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden., Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden., Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Division of Urology, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden., Department of Urology, Danderyd Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden., Department of Urology, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden., Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden; Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden., Department of Surgical Sciences, University of Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden., Oncology, Department of Diagnostics and Intervention, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden., Department of Pelvic Cancer, Genitourinary Oncology and Urology Unit, Theme Cancer, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Oncology and Pathology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden., Department of Surgical Sciences, University of Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden; School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King's College London, London, United Kingdom., Northern Register Centre, Oncology, Department of Diagnostics and Intervention, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.