Accuracy and Clinical Utility of a Tumor Grade- and Stage-based Predictive Model in Localized Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma.

Among various clinicopathologic factors used to identify low-risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), tumor grade and stage are of utmost importance. The clinical value added by inclusion of other risk factors remains unproven.

To assess the performance of a tumor grade- and stage-based (GS) model to identify patients with UTUC for whom kidney-sparing surgery (KSS) could be attempted.

In this international study, we reviewed the medical records of 1240 patients with UTUC who underwent radical nephroureterectomy. Complete data needed for risk stratification according to the European Association of Urology (EAU) and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines were available for 560 patients.

Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine if risk factors were associated with the presence of localized UTUC. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the GS, EAU, and NCCN models in predicting pathologic stage were calculated.

Overall, 198 patients (35%) had clinically low-grade, noninvasive tumors, and 283 (51%) had ≤pT1disease. On multivariable analyses, none of the EAU and NCCN risk factors were associated with the presence of non-muscle-invasive UTUC among patients with low-grade and low-stage UTUC. The GS model exhibited the highest accuracy, sensitivity, and negative predictive value among all three models. According to the GS, EAU, and NCCN models, the proportion of patients eligible for KSS was 35%, 6%, and 4%, respectively. Decision curve analysis revealed that the net benefit of the three models was similar within the clinically reasonable range of probability thresholds.

The GS model showed favorable predictive accuracy and identified a greater number of KSS-eligible patients than the EAU and NCCN models. A decision-making algorithm that weighs the benefits of avoiding unnecessary kidney loss against the risk of undertreatment in case of advanced carcinoma is necessary for individualized treatment for UTUC patients.

We assessed the ability of three models to predict low-grade, low-stage disease in patients with cancer of the upper urinary tract. No risk factors other than grade assessed on biopsy and stage assessed from scans were associated with better prediction of localized cancer. A model based on grade and stage may help to identify patients who could benefit from kidney-sparing treatment of their cancer.

European urology focus. 2021 May 27 [Epub ahead of print]

Satoshi Katayama, Keiichiro Mori, Victor M Schuettfort, Benjamin Pradere, Hadi Mostafaei, Fahad Quhal, Pawel Rajwa, Reza Sari Motlagh, Ekaterina Laukhtina, Marco Moschini, Nico C Grossmann, Motoo Araki, Jeremy Yuen-Chun Teoh, Morgan Rouprêt, Vitaly Margulis, Dmitry Enikeev, Pierre I Karakiewicz, Mohammad Abufaraj, Eva Compérat, Yasutomo Nasu, Shahrokh F Shariat

Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama, Japan., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, The Jikei University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, University Hospital of Tours, Tours, France., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Research Center for Evidence Based Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, King Fahad Specialist Hospital, Dammam, Saudi Arabia., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, Medical University of Silesia, Zabrze, Poland., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Men's Health and Reproductive Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Institute for Urology and Reproductive Health, Sechenov University, Moscow, Russia., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, Luzerner Kantonsspital, Luzern, Switzerland., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland., Department of Urology, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama, Japan., S.H. Ho Urology Centre, Department of Surgery, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China., GRC 5 Predictive Onco-Uro, Urology, Sorbonne University, Pitie-Salpetriere Hospital, Paris, France., Department of Urology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA., Institute for Urology and Reproductive Health, Sechenov University, Moscow, Russia., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal, Canada., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Research Division of Urology, Department of Special Surgery, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Institute for Urology and Reproductive Health, Sechenov University, Moscow, Russia; Department of Urology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA; Research Division of Urology, Department of Special Surgery, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; Department of Urology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA; Department of Urology, Second Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; Karl Landsteiner Institute of Urology and Andrology, Vienna, Austria; European Association of Urology Research Foundation, Arnhem, The Netherlands. Electronic address: .