In many primaries other than non-seminoma testis cancer, the risk of death due to cancer decreases with increasing disease-free interval duration after initial diagnosis and treatment. This effect is known as conditional survival and is relatively unexplored in stage III non-seminoma patients, where it may matter most in clinical decision-making. We examined the effect of disease-free interval duration on overall survival in stage III non-seminoma patients.
Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database (2004-2018), stage III non-seminoma patients were identified. Multivariable Cox regression analyses and conditional survival models were applied.
Of 2,092 surgically treated stage III non-seminoma patients, 385 (18%) exhibited good vs. 558 (27%) intermediate vs. 1,149 (55%) poor prognosis. In multivariable Cox regression models, poor prognosis group independently predicted overall mortality (HR 3.3, P < 0.001). In conditional survival analyses based on 36 months' disease-free interval duration, 5-year overall survival estimates were as follows: good prognosis patients 96 vs. 89% at initial diagnosis without accounting for disease-free interval duration (Δ=+7); intermediate prognosis patients 94 vs. 85% at initial diagnosis without accounting for disease-free interval duration (Δ=+9); poor prognosis patients 94 vs. 65% at initial diagnosis without accounting for disease-free interval duration (Δ=+29).
Conditional survival estimates based on 36 months' disease-free interval duration provide a more accurate and more optimistic outlook for stage III non-seminoma patients than predictions defined at initial diagnosis, without accounting for disease-free interval duration.
Urologic oncology. 2023 Aug 07 [Epub ahead of print]
Reha-Baris Incesu, Francesco Barletta, Stefano Tappero, Simone Morra, Cristina Cano Garcia, Lukas Scheipner, Mattia Luca Piccinelli, Zhe Tian, Fred Saad, Shahrokh F Shariat, Ottavio de Cobelli, Sascha Ahyai, Felix K H Chun, Nicola Longo, Carlo Terrone, Alberto Briganti, Derya Tilki, Markus Graefen, Pierre I Karakiewicz
Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Martini-Klinik Prostate Cancer Center, University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany. Electronic address: ., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Unit of Urology/Division of Oncology, Gianfranco Soldera Prostate Cancer Lab, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy; Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Urology, IRCCS Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy; Department of Surgical and Diagnostic Integrated Sciences (DISC), University of Genova, Genova, Italy., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Neurosciences, Reproductive Sciences and Odontostomatology, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Urology, University Hospital Frankfurt, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Germany., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Urology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Urology, IEO European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY; Department of Urology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX; Hourani Center of Applied Scientific Research, Al-Ahliyya Amman University, Amman, Jordan., Department of Urology, IEO European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy., Department of Urology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria., Department of Neurosciences, Reproductive Sciences and Odontostomatology, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy., Department of Urology, IRCCS Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy; Department of Surgical and Diagnostic Integrated Sciences (DISC), University of Genova, Genova, Italy., Unit of Urology/Division of Oncology, Gianfranco Soldera Prostate Cancer Lab, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy; Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy., Martini-Klinik Prostate Cancer Center, University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Urology, University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Urology, Koc University Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey., Martini-Klinik Prostate Cancer Center, University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.