If updated into the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC Rotterdam) risk calculator number 3 (RC3), this may further improve upfront selection of men who need a biopsy.
To improve the number of possible biopsies avoided, while limiting undiagnosed clinically important PCa by applying the updated RC3 for risk-based patient selection.
The RC3 is based on the first screening round of the ERSPC Rotterdam, which involved 3616 men. In 2015, histopathologic slides for PCa cases (n=885) were re-evaluated. Low-risk (LR) PCa was defined as ISUP grade 1 or 2 without CR/IDC. High-risk (HR) PCa was defined as ISUP grade 2 with CR/IDC and PCa with ISUP grade≥3.
We updated the RC3 using multinomial logistic regression analysis, including data on age, PSA, digital rectal examination, and prostate volume, for predicting LR and HR PCa. Predictive accuracy was quantified using receiver operating characteristic analysis and decision curve analysis.
Men without PCa could effectively be distinguished from men with LR PCa and HR PCa (area under the curve 0.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.72 and 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.94). At a 1% risk threshold, the updated calculator would lead to a 34% reduction in unnecessary biopsies, while only 2% of HR PCa cases would be undiagnosed.
A relatively simple risk stratification tool augmented with a highly sensitive contemporary pathologic biopsy classification would result in a considerable decrease in unnecessary prostate biopsies and overdiagnosis of potentially indolent disease.
We improved a well-known prostate risk calculator with a new pathology classification system that better reflects disease burden. This new risk calculator allows individualized prediction of the chance of having (potentially aggressive) biopsy-detectable prostate cancer and can guide shared decision-making when considering prostate biopsy.
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European urology. 2017 Feb 02 [Epub ahead of print]
Monique J Roobol, Jan F M Verbeek, Theo van der Kwast, Intan P Kümmerlin, Charlotte F Kweldam, Geert J L H van Leenders Department of Urology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: ., Department of Urology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Department of Pathology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.