BACKGROUND: Information on the current and future numbers of Australian men living with prostate cancer is limited.
We describe a method for estimating complete prevalence of prostate cancer to provide a measure of the burden of prostate cancer in Australia.
METHODS: Prostate cancer data from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry were used with PIAMOD (Prevalence and Incidence Analysis MODel) software to estimate future prostate cancer prevalence in NSW. We first fitted parametric incidence and survival models then used the modelled incidence and survival estimates to calculate complete prevalence. The estimated and projected prevalence incorporate past observed trends and take into account different assumptions about future survival trends. These models were validated against observed prevalence from the counting method.
RESULTS: Based on data for 1996-2007, the number of men living with prostate cancer in NSW was estimated to rise by 59% to 73%, from 38,322 in 2007 to 60,910-66,160 in 2017. The increasing incidence rates and the ageing population were the major contributors to this estimated increase. Validation suggested that these projections were reasonable, as the estimated prevalence in 1996-2007 was in good agreement with the corresponding prevalence calculated using the direct counting method, and the incidence models were supported by the recent data on prostate-specific antigen testing.
CONCLUSIONS: As the number of men living with prostate cancer is expected to increase dramatically in the next decade in Australia, representing a significant challenge to the health system, careful planning and development of a healthcare system able to respond to this increased demand is required. These projections are useful for addressing the challenge in meeting the cancer care needs of men with prostate cancer.
Yu XQ, Luo Q, Smith DP, Clements MS, O'Connell DL. Are you the author?
Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, the University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; Griffith Health Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Nordic Information for Action eScience Center, Stockholm, Sweden; Swedish e-Science Research Centre, KTH, Department of Mechanics, Stockholm, Sweden; Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, the University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of NSW, Sydney, Australia; School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Reference: Cancer Epidemiol. 2015 Feb;39(1):29-36.