The building and validation of a model to predict the bone metastases of patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer - Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a nomogram used to predict the bone metastasis risks according to the clinicopathological factors of patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer.

METHODS: The 501 cases were randomly assigned into development sample (300 cases) and validation sample (201 cases). In the development sample, Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the predictors of bone metastases, and then a nomogram was built based on regression coefficients and validated in the validation sample.

RESULTS: Prostate specific antigen, cT3, cT4 and Gleason score ≥ 8 were the independent prognostic factors (P < 0.05), and the OR values were 5.65, 2.89, 9.07 and 2.87 respectively. The concordance index was 0.830 in the model sample and 0.799 in the validation sample.

CONCLUSION: A nomogram, built based on the clinicopathological factors, could be used to predict the risk of bone metastases and then could be helpful for the rational use of bone scan.

Written by:
Zhou JQ, Zhu Y, Yao XD, Zhang SL, Dai B, Zhang HL, Ye DW.   Are you the author?
Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.

Reference: Zhonghua Wai Ke Za Zhi. 2012 Nov;50(11):999-1002.

PubMed Abstract
PMID: 23302484

Article in Chinese. Prostate Cancer Section