Guideline recommendations regarding early management of grade group (GG) 2 prostate cancer with confirmatory biopsy (cBx) are not well established. Our aim was to determine which patients with GG 2 cancer should undergo cBx before treatment decision-making by evaluating the probability of downgrading to GG 1 or no cancer on cBx.
This was a single-institution retrospective analysis of patients with GG 2 prostate cancer who underwent cBx. We modeled the probability of having no Gleason pattern 4 on cBx according to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score, presence of extraprostatic extension (EPE) on MRI, total length of pattern 4 across all cores on initial Bx, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density.
Among 301 patients, 62 (21%) were downgraded to GG 1 and 23 (8%) had no cancer on cBx. For patients with nonsuspicious MRI findings (PI-RADS 1-3; n = 123), the probability of having no pattern 4 on CBx was 34%, 20%, and 11% for 1, 2, and 3 mm of pattern 4 at initial Bx. For PI-RADS 4-5 without EPE on MRI (n = 146), the corresponding probabilities were 18%, 10%, and 5%. Patients with EPE on MRI (n = 32) had low probability (<10%) of having no pattern 4 on cBx irrespective of pattern 4 on initial Bx. Results using a model based on PSA density followed a similar trend. After applying the model in a cohort of patients with GG 2 cancer who immediately underwent surgery (n = 2275), we estimated that two-thirds would be eligible for cBx before treatment using a probability threshold of 5-10% for avoiding immediate surgery.
Patients with GG 2 prostate cancer, no evidence of EPE, and a few millimeters of pattern 4 should undergo cBx before proceeding to surgery. Further research should define the oncologic risk for such patients, refine the criteria for cBx in GG 2 disease, and assess methods for quantifying pattern 4 length in MRI-targeted cores.
For patients with grade group (GG) 2 prostate cancer, we found that the amount of Gleason pattern 4 cancer in the initial biopsy, PSA (prostate-specific antigen) density, and MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) findings help to identify men who are likely to be downgraded to less aggressive GG 1 cancer or no cancer at all on a repeat confirmatory biopsy. We assessed these predictors in a group of patients with similar characteristics who underwent immediate surgery, and found that approximately two-thirds would benefit from a confirmatory biopsy.
European urology open science. 2025 Feb 12*** epublish ***
Riccardo Leni, Emily A Vertosick, Nicole Liso, Oguz Akin, Sigrid V Carlsson, Francesco Montorsi, Alberto Briganti, James A Eastham, Samson W Fine, Andrew J Vickers, Behfar Ehdaie
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center New York NY USA., Department of Radiology, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center New York NY USA., Division of Experimental Oncology, Department of Urology, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute Milan Italy., Urology Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center New York NY USA., Department of Pathology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center New York NY USA.