This study aimed to identify independent prognosis-associated factors of bone-metastatic prostate cancer. The nomograms were further developed to obtain indicators for the prognostic evaluation.
A total of 7315 bone-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) patients from 2010 to 2016 were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly divided into the training cohort (n=5,120) and test cohort (n=2,195) in a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were applied to evaluate potential risk factors. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was further performed to decrease the confounding effect and re-evaluate the influence of radical prostatectomy and chemotherapy on prognosis. Combining these potential prognosis factors, the nomograms of cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) at different times were established. C-indexes, calibration curves, and decision curves were developed to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical benefit of the nomograms.
Eleven independent prognosis factors for CSS and twelve for OS were utilized to conduct the nomograms respectively. The C-indexes of nomograms for CSS and OS were 0.712 and 0.702, respectively. A favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities was demonstrated by adopting calibration curves. Decision curves also exhibited a positive clinical benefit of the nomograms.
Nomograms were formulated successfully to predict 3-year and 5-year CSS and OS for bone-metastatic PCa patients. Radical prostatectomy and chemotherapy were strongly associated with the bone-metastatic PCa prognosis.
Frontiers in oncology. 2022 Dec 06*** epublish ***
Donglin Sun, Ao Lin, Zhun Sun, Shuqi Yang, Yuexin Sun, Anning Chen, Guojun Qian, Zhonghua Ji, Li Wang
Center for Cancer and Immunology Research, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China., The State Key Lab of Respiratory Disease, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Xinzao, Guangzhou, China., Department of Clinical Medicine, The Second Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China., Department of Anesthesia, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China., Nephrology Department, Southern Medical University Affiliated Longhua People's Hospital, Shenzhen, China.