Cancer mortality predictions for 2019 in Latin America.

We estimated mortality figures for 2019 in seven Latin American countries, with focus on breast cancer. We retrieved cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and PAHO databases. We obtained mortality statistics for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela for 1970-2015. We predicted current death numbers and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates using joinpoint regression models. Total cancer mortality is predicted to decline in all countries and both sexes, except Argentinean women. Cuba had the highest all cancer rates for 2019, 136.9/100,000 men and 90.4 women, while Mexico showed the lowest ones, 63.8/100,000 men and 61.9 women. Stomach cancer showed favourable trends over the whole period, while colorectal cancer only recently. Lung cancer rates declined in men, while in women they decreased slightly over most recent years, only. In Cuban women, lung cancer rates overtook breast cancer ones. Breast cancer showed overall favourable trends, but rates are rising in young women. Prostate and uterine cancer had favourable trends. Pancreas, ovary, bladder and leukaemias showed slightly decreasing trends. Between 1990 and 2019, mortality from all neoplasms is predicted to fall by about 18% in Argentina, 26% in Chile, 14% in Colombia, 17% in Mexico and 13% in Venezuela, corresponding to almost 0.5 million avoided cancer deaths. No decline was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Of concern, the high lung cancer rates in Cuba, the possible increases in breast cancer in young women, and the lack of overall declines in Brazil, Cuba and Venezuelan men. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

International journal of cancer. 2019 Oct 21 [Epub ahead of print]

G Carioli, P Bertuccio, M Malvezzi, T Rodriguez, F Levi, P Boffetta, C La Vecchia, E Negri

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy., Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy., Navarra General Hospital. Navarra Health Service. Irunlarrea s/n, 31008 Navarra, Spain., Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (IUMSP), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland., Tisch Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.