Development and Validation of a Novel Prognostic Model for Predicting Overall Survival in Treatment-naïve Castration-sensitive Metastatic Prostate Cancer.

There has been growth in the treatment options for castration-sensitive metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa), but without clear guidance for risk stratification.

To identify clinical parameters associated with overall survival (OS) and establish a prognostic model for use with treatment-naïve castration-sensitive mPCa.

A retrospective review of 304 patients treated at Kyoto University Hospital was performed. A prognostic model was created using clinical parameters associated with OS. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 520 patients.

Multivariable analysis was performed to identify the clinical parameters associated with OS. Risk scores were calculated using Cox proportional hazards analysis for each combination of risk factors, and patients were grouped into categories based on those scores.

Over 80% of the cohort had a Gleason sum score ≥8. The median OS was 53mo among patients with CHAARTED high-volume PCa (n=172) and 131mo among those with low-volume PCa (n=100). Independent factors associated with OS were extent of disease score ≥2 or the presence of liver metastasis; lactate dehydrogenase >250U/L; and a primary Gleason score of 5. The median OS for the high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups according to the new model were 28mo, 59mo, and not reached, respectively; the corresponding values in the validation cohort were 41mo, 63mo, and not reached. Harrell's C-index was 0.649.

Our simple and reproducible prognostic model for treatment-naïve castration-sensitive mPCa could aid in risk stratification and treatment selection.

We identified clinical parameters associated with prognosis in castration-sensitive metastatic prostate cancer and established a reproducible prognostic model that could be used to guide treatment decisions.

European urology oncology. 2018 Nov 23 [Epub]

Shusuke Akamatsu, Masashi Kubota, Ryuji Uozumi, Shintaro Narita, Masahiro Takahashi, Koji Mitsuzuka, Shingo Hatakeyama, Toshihiko Sakurai, Sadafumi Kawamura, Shigeto Ishidoya, Senji Hoshi, Masanori Ishida, Kei Mizuno, Keiji Ogura, Takayuki Goto, Naoki Terada, Takashi Kobayashi, Toshinari Yamasaki, Takahiro Inoue, Norihiko Tsuchiya, Chikara Ohyama, Yoichi Arai, Tomonori Habuchi, Satoshi Morita, Osamu Ogawa

Department of Urology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan., Department of Biomedical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan., Department of Urology, Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita, Japan., Department of Urology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan., Department of Urology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Japan., Department of Urology, Yamagata University Faculty of Medicine, Yamagata, Japan., Department of Urology, Miyagi Cancer Center, Sendai, Japan., Department of Urology, Sendai City Hospital, Sendai, Japan., Department of Urology, Yamagata Prefectural Central Hospital, Yamagata, Japan., Department of Urology, Iwate Prefectural Isawa Hospital, Oshu, Japan., Department of Urology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan; Department of Urology, Japanese Red Cross Otsu Hospital, Otsu, Japan., Department of Urology, Japanese Red Cross Otsu Hospital, Otsu, Japan., Department of Urology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan. Electronic address: .