Past, Current, and Future Incidence Rates and Burden of Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States.

Metastatic prostate cancer (PCA) remains a highly lethal malignancy in the USA. As prostate-specific antigen testing declines nationally, detailed assessment of current age- and race-specific incidence trends and quantitative forecasts are needed.

To evaluate the current trends of metastatic PCA by age and race, and forecast the number of new cases (annual burden) and future trends.

We derived incidence data for men aged ≥45 yr who were diagnosed with metastatic PCA from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries.

We examined the current trends of metastatic PCA from 2004 to 2014, and forecast the annual burden and incidence rates by age and race for 2015-2025, using age-period-cohort models and population projections. We also examined alternative forecasts (2012-2025) using trends prior to the revised screening guidelines issued in 2012.

Metastatic PCA, steadily declining from 2004 to 2007 by 1.45%/yr, began to increase by 0.58%/yr after 2008, which accelerated to 2.74%/yr following the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations-a pattern that was magnified among men aged ≤69 yr and white men. Forecasts project the incidence to increase by 1.03%/yr through 2025, with men aged 45-54 yr (2.29%/yr) and 55-69 yr (1.53%/yr) increasing more rapidly. Meanwhile, the annual burden is expected to increase 42% by 2025. Our forecasts estimated an additional 15 891 metastatic cases from 2015 to 2025 compared with alternative forecasts using trends prior to 2012.

The recent uptick in metastatic PCA rates has resulted in forecasts that project increasing rates through 2025, particularly among men aged ≤69 yr. Moreover, racial disparities are expected to persist and the annual burden will increase considerably. The impact of the prior and current PCA screening recommendations on metastatic PCA rates requires continued examination.

In this report, we assessed how the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has changed over recent years, and forecast future incidence trends and the number of new cases expected each year. We found that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing more rapidly since 2012, resulting in a rise in both future incidence and the number of new cases by 2025. Future incidence rates and the number of new cases were reduced in alternative forecasts using data prior to the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer. There is a need for additional research that examines whether national declines in PSA testing contributed to increases in rates of metastatic disease. The incidence of metastatic disease in black men is still expected to occur at considerably higher rates compared with that in white men.

European urology focus. 2017 Nov 20 [Epub]

Scott P Kelly, William F Anderson, Philip S Rosenberg, Michael B Cook

Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA. Electronic address: ., Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA.

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