The European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) has shown a 20% relative reduction in prostate cancer mortality after 16yr [rate ratio (RR) 0.80], but centers varied by attendance, screen interval, biopsy compliance, contamination in the control arm, and treatments. We used a microsimulation model, calibrated to the ERSPC individual-level data, to predict influence of study features on the results. The relative reduction in prostate cancer mortality would have been somewhat larger with improved study features: increased attendance (90% attendance in all volunteer-based and 70% in all population-based centers, resulting in RR 0.77), a 2-yr screen interval (RR 0.75), and an 80% biopsy compliance (RR 0.79). The RR would have been substantially lower with a 30% attendance (RR 0.92), 40% biopsy compliance (RR 0.90), or 100% contamination (RR 0.85). The variations in results by trial center may reflect differences in study design and performance and results of our simulations highlight the effect of quality indicators in prostate-specific antigen screening in different settings. PATIENT SUMMARY: We evaluated the effect of various features of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening on its effectiveness. The compliance to PSA testing and those having a biopsy after an elevated PSA substantially influence the prostate cancer mortality.
European urology. 2019 Apr 25 [Epub ahead of print]
Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, Jan Adolfsson, Anssi Auvinen, Monique J Roobol, Jonas Hugosson, Harry J de Koning
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: ., Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden., School of Health Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland., Department of Urology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Göteborg, Sweden., Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.