The reason why Dr. Crawford feels that a PSA of 1.5 is the new 4 is because we need a simple message for those that order PSA – 90% of which are family practice/internal medicine physicians. In an assessment of prostate cancer mortality from the PLCO trial, an initial PSA <1 ng/mL meant that screening could safely be stretched out to every 5-10 year.1 In 2011, Dr. Crawford’s team used the Henry Ford health system to identify 21,502 eligible men from 1997-2008 to attempt to define an appropriate PSA level.2 These men all had an initial PSA from 1-5 ng/mL, a minimum of 5 years follow-up, and no 5-alpha reductase inhibitors. They found that prostate cancer rates were 15-fold higher in patients with PSA ≥1.5 ng/mL compared to patients with a PSA <1.5 ng/mL (7.85% vs 0.51%). Furthermore, African American patients with baseline PSA <1.5 ng/mL faced prostate cancer rates similar to the whole study population (0.54% vs 0.51%, respectively), while African American patients with PSA 1.5-4.0 ng/mL had a 19-fold increase in prostate cancer. Dr. Crawford calls a PSA of > 1.5 – 4 the “danger zone”.
In his opinion, a PSA > 1.5 ng/mL is the way forward and a surrogate for prostate health:
- BPH-most common
- Prostate cancer
- Long term prostate cancer risk
- It is important to evaluate the patient – don’t biopsy everyone with a PSA > 1.5 ng/mL
The following table suggests how molecular markers may perform with this PSA 1.5 ng/mL cutoff:

Dr. Crawford notes that prostate cancer has several clinical needs:
- Screening: primary care physicians needs a simple message and that should be a PSA of 1.5 ng/mL
- Informed Decision: it should happen like other tests that are “routinely performed” by the primary care physician
- Identifying significant cancers/reducing unnecessary biopsies
Dr. Crawford provided his algorithm for PSA screening:

- PSA 1.5 ng/mL is a reasonable cut point, but nothing is perfect
- PSA 1.5 ng/mL is simple for family physicians to remember
- In general, informed decision making should happen when the PSA is abnormal
- PSA 1.5-4.0 ng/mL is a grey zone, as this can be a surrogate for BPH, prostate cancer, and prostatitis
- Clinical evaluation and genomic markers help determine whom to biopsy
Presented by: E. David Crawford, University of Colorado, Denver, Colorado
Written by: Zachary Klaassen, MD, MSc – Assistant Professor of Urology, Georgia Cancer Center, Augusta University - Medical College of Georgia, Twitter: @zklaassen_md at the American Urological Association's 2019 Annual Meeting (AUA 2019), May 3 – 6, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois
References:
- Andriole GL, Crawford ED, Grubb RL 3rd, et al. Mortality results from a randomized prostate-cancer screening trial. N Engl J Med 2009;360:1310-1319.
- Crawford ED, Moul JW, Rove KO, et al. Prostate-specific antigen 1.5-4.0 ng/mL: A diagnostic challenge and danger zone. BJU Int 2011 Dec;108(11):1743-1749.
- Goldberg H, Klaassen Z, Chandrasekar T, et al. Evaluation of an aggressive prostate biopsy strategy in men younger than 50 years. J Urol 2018 Nov;200(5):1056-1061.